Statement of Purpose

I have resisted the temptation and requests from several friends to create this blog, but I guess I should give it a try.

The primary reason: I have developed some knowledge about tropical weather and about the way that hurricane forecasters think and work, and I believe I can add some context and perspective to tropical-weather developments. From time to time, I will try to do so.

In addition, every year, the hype related to tropical weather grows more intense and worrisome -- and, worse, it begins earlier and earlier in the cycle. Especially here in Florida.

This is not the fault of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center or at the National Weather Service, who are professionals and universally strive to place their predictions in the proper context.

It is the fault of some elements of the media. So, when appropriate, I will try to counterbalance that with a more measured approach.

One other thing -- this blog (and I hope everyone who reads it) will always honor the prime directive of tropical weather meteorology:

The only forecast worth your attention and response is the forecast produced by the National Hurricane Center. The best hurricane forecasters in the world work there and, when it comes to track forecasts, they almost always get it right. Period.

I believe that the more the public knows about the reasoning and process behind the forecasts, the more credible these forecasts will be. And that can save lives.

It's in that spirit that this blog is created.